2026 AFL Finals: Who’s In, Who Starred, and Where the Value Is for Punters

The 2026 AFL finals have delivered everything September football promises — close finishes, upsets, and a new format that kept ten teams in the hunt longer than ever before. As of Monday September 15, four clubs remain alive. The Preliminary Finals this weekend will determine who makes the Grand Final at the MCG on Saturday September 26.

Here’s the full story of how we got here — and where the betting value sits heading into the pointy end of the season. For a broader AFL betting guide covering strategy and markets, VerifiedPokies covers both sports betting and online pokies across reviewed Australian platforms.

The New Finals Format: What Changed in 2026

2026 marked the biggest overhaul to AFL finals in 25 years. The top six teams on the ladder at the end of the home-and-away season moved straight through to finals, while teams finishing seventh to tenth played off in a new Wildcard Round for the last two spots in an expanded eight-team finals series.

The format delivered immediately. The opening night of the AFL finals delivered a classic — eighth-placed Western Bulldogs hosted ninth-placed Collingwood at the MCG on Friday and held on for a 96-93 win in a tense finish. The following night, Carlton eliminated Melbourne by 19 points in front of 91,733 at the MCG.

Both Wildcard Round winners were then eliminated in week two — meaning the top six from the home-and-away season now make up the four remaining sides. The format worked exactly as designed: more clubs got a shot, but the cream still rose.

How the Finals Unfolded: Week by Week

Wildcard Round (August 28-29)
Western Bulldogs def Collingwood by 3 points — a thriller at the MCG that went down to the final siren. Carlton def Melbourne by 19 points — a commanding performance from the Blues in front of a packed MCG crowd.

Qualifying and Elimination Finals (Week 2)
Fremantle opened their finals campaign at Optus Stadium going down to Hawthorn, while Sydney had a commanding victory over the Brisbane Lions at the SCG in their Qualifying Final. Geelong defeated Carlton in their Elimination Final at the MCG, while the Adelaide Crows defeated the Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval.

The result in Perth was significant — Hawthorn going to Optus and beating the minor premiers was the result of the finals so far.

Semi Finals (September 11-12)
The Dockers defeated Geelong by 14 points in Perth to reach their fourth Preliminary Final and first since 2015. Brisbane demolished Adelaide by 53 points at the Gabba — a statement performance from the back-to-back premiers who looked a completely different team from their qualifying final loss to Sydney.

The Highlights That Defined September

Hawthorn’s win in Perth stands as the moment that reshuffled the premiership market. Hawthorn squeezed the life out of Fremantle to make its road to the premiership even tougher — winning at Optus Stadium against a 19-4 minor premier was a result few expected, and it handed the Hawks a home Preliminary Final at the MCG.

Sydney’s 53-point dismantling of Brisbane in the Qualifying Final announced the Swans as genuine premiership threats. Charlie Curnow’s Coleman Medal season — Sydney’s Charlie Curnow won his third Coleman Medal as the league’s leading goalkicker — has given them a forward line that can hurt any opponent.

Brisbane’s 53-point demolition of Adelaide in the Semi Final was perhaps the most contradictory result of September — the same Lions who were beaten easily by Sydney three weeks earlier looked completely dominant. It’s the kind of form swing that makes September football impossible to predict.

The Wildcard Round itself — seeing Collingwood and Melbourne eliminated before the main finals began was a significant moment for the game. The new format delivered the drama it promised.

What Everyone’s Talking About

Off the record, the big whisper around the finals is that Hawthorn may be the team nobody wants to face at the MCG. Their win in Perth changed the tone around the premiership race, and there is a growing feeling that September experience counts for more than regular-season form once the pressure really starts. Sydney, meanwhile, are quietly gaining plenty of attention after their dominant win over Brisbane — and with home advantage at the SCG, the Swans could be the side capable of spoiling the Hawks’ repeat-premiership plans. The interesting question now is whether Brisbane’s huge semi-final turnaround was a genuine revival or simply one very good night. Either way, the whispers are getting louder as Grand Final weekend approaches.

The Four Teams Left Standing

Sydney Swans — Home Preliminary Final vs Fremantle (SCG, Friday 7:40pm AEST)

Fremantle won the minor premiership with a 19-4 record. Sydney finished second. The Swans’ qualifying final win over Brisbane was commanding, and home ground at the SCG on a Friday night is a genuine advantage. Charlie Curnow’s Coleman Medal season gives them a match-winning forward who can hurt any defence. Their last flag was 2012 — the hunger is real.

Fremantle Dockers — Away Preliminary Final vs Sydney

Fremantle’s season has been extraordinary — minor premiers, first finals appearance at this stage since 2015, a comeback semi-final win over Geelong. But they’ve now lost to Hawthorn in Perth and must beat Sydney in Sydney to reach a first-ever Grand Final. The tie neutrals will want is Fremantle against anyone. Fremantle have never won a premiership, and a minor premiership plus a home qualifying final is the best position the club has been in.

Hawthorn Hawks — Home Preliminary Final vs Brisbane (MCG, Saturday 5:15pm AEST)

The reigning back-to-back premiers. The reigning premiers are favourites without having been the best team across the season. Hawthorn’s win in Perth showed they can perform under pressure on hostile ground — and now they get the MCG with a packed Hawks crowd. If any team knows how to win September football, it’s this one.

Brisbane Lions — Away Preliminary Final vs Hawthorn

Brisbane’s campaign has been contradictory. Beaten heavily by Sydney in the qualifying final. Then beaten Adelaide by 53 points. The Lions have the depth, the experience, and the players to go all the way — but they need to beat Hawthorn at the MCG, which no interstate side finds easy.

Grand Final Odds and Betting Value

Hawthorn ($8) and Geelong ($13) headed the chasing pack, with Adelaide ($17) and Sydney ($18) next before the semi-finals. With Geelong and Adelaide now eliminated, the market has condensed significantly around the four remaining sides.

Based on the most recent verified odds data, the market pricing reflects Hawthorn’s back-to-back status and MCG home ground for the Preliminary Final as significant factors — while Sydney’s home game against Fremantle positions the Swans as likely finalists. Brisbane’s September revival has shortened them from where they sat after the qualifying final loss.

Current market shape (pre-Preliminary Finals, verify with your bookmaker before betting):

Who Should Punters Be On?

The case for Hawthorn: Back-to-back premierships, won at Optus Stadium in week two, home Preliminary Final at the MCG, and a track record of September performance that no other club can match right now. Hawthorn ($8) the value side of that group — if the market is pricing Brisbane shorter based on their semi-final form swing, Hawthorn represents the more defensible value play for the premiership.

The case for Sydney: Home ground, Coleman Medal forward, commanding qualifying final win, and a finals record this September that shows consistent performance rather than the contradictory swings of Brisbane. Sydney winning the Preliminary Final and meeting Hawthorn at the MCG would be the Grand Final most of the country wants — and the Swans have the forward firepower to win it.

The each-way case for Brisbane: September form swings are real, and Brisbane’s 53-point demolition of Adelaide cannot be ignored. But backing Brisbane each-way at a prelim-adjusted price requires you to believe the Lions who beat Adelaide are the real Brisbane — not the ones Sydney dismantled.

The punt on Fremantle: If Fremantle win a first-ever premiership, it will be the great AFL story of 2026. The price will be generous. But they must beat Sydney in Sydney first — a significant ask.

As always: verify current odds with your bookmaker before placing any bet. Markets move significantly around Preliminary Final team selection and any late injury news.

Where to Bet on the AFL Finals

If you’re looking to bet on the AFL Finals, these partner platforms offer online sports betting and casino options:

Always check the current market availability, odds, eligibility and promotional terms directly on the platform before depositing or placing a bet.

Always verify current market availability and promotional terms directly on each platform before depositing.

Final Thoughts

The 2026 AFL finals have been everything the new format promised — more teams, more drama, and a September that kept punters and supporters engaged longer than any previous year. Four genuinely different sides remain, each with a legitimate case for the premiership.

Hawthorn’s September pedigree is the most compelling single factor in the market. Sydney’s home ground and forward line are the counter-argument. Brisbane’s form surge is real but contradictory. Fremantle’s story would be the greatest in the competition’s history — but they need to win in Sydney first.

The 2026 AFL Grand Final is at the MCG on Saturday September 26 at 2:30pm AEST. Whoever gets there, it will be worth watching.

For a broader AFL betting guide covering strategy, markets, and bankroll management across the full season, the online casino section at VerifiedPokies covers reviewed Australian platforms for both sports betting and casino play.

Gamble responsibly. For free and confidential support, call the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.