The Rugby League World Cup is down to its final four, and the semi-finals land this weekend. New Zealand meet Tonga in Newcastle on Saturday, then Australia face Samoa in Sydney on Sunday. This guide covers how the tournament got here, what to weigh in each semi-final, and the markets worth understanding. For more across the football codes, see our sports betting hub.
Where the Tournament Stands
The tournament runs from 15 October to 15 November across Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, with the final at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. The headline is England’s exit: the semi-finals were locked in after the final round, and for the first time in the competition’s history England aren’t in them.
Round three settled the line-up. Tonga edged Samoa 20–18 to top the combined pool, while Australia beat the Cook Islands 66–6 and New Zealand beat Fiji 78–0. Treat those two blowouts with caution, because they came against the weakest sides left.
Semi-Final 1: New Zealand v Tonga
Saturday 7 November, Newcastle, 8:05pm AEDT.
The Kiwis have the sharper attack on paper. They scored 13 tries to nil against Fiji, with Casey McLean crossing four times and Jamayne Isaako landing 13 goals from 13. Isaako has kicked 31 goals from 32 attempts across the pool stage. Selection is still moving: Jacob Laban is out injured and Phoenix Crossland has been called up, and Ronaldo Mulitalo was sent off against Fiji for a high tackle, so his availability depends on the judiciary.
Tonga’s case is momentum. They stunned England 30–12 in Perth in the opening week, and they finished top of the combined pool on six points.
Semi-Final 2: Australia v Samoa
Sunday 8 November, Sydney, 8:05pm AEDT. It is a rematch of the 2022 final, which Australia won 30–10.
Australia started unevenly, and they beat Fiji 36–22 to secure the semi-final before finding their rhythm against the Cook Islands. Tom Trbojevic and Jack Bostock have 13 tries between them, and Reece Walsh is all but confirmed at fullback for the knockouts.
Samoa have a playmaking question. Chanel Harris-Tavita hurt a hamstring against Tonga and looks unlikely to face Australia, and Ronald Volkman may partner Jarome Luai in the halves.
Markets Worth Knowing
Market | What you’re backing | What to weigh |
Head-to-head | The match winner | Pool margins flatter Australia and New Zealand; knockout opposition is tougher |
Line | A team to win by more than a set margin | Compare Australia’s 66–6 with its 36–22 |
Total points | Combined score over or under a number | The Tonga–Samoa derby finished 20–18 |
Tryscorer | First or anytime tryscorer | Wait for confirmed team lists |
Same game multi | Several legs from one match | Legs are linked, so keep them few |
Before the tournament, UK bookmakers had Australia as short as 4/5, with the Kiwis at best 7/2. Early prices at our partner platforms again make Australia and New Zealand the favourites in their semi-finals, with Samoa and Tonga the outsiders. Short head-to-head prices are one reason many punters turn to the line and tryscorer markets instead.
Where to Bet on the Semi-Finals
These partner platforms list Rugby League World Cup markets for the men’s semi-finals. Prices below were shown on 4 November and will move with team news.
Platform | New Zealand v Tonga | Australia v Samoa | Worth knowing |
NZ 1.38, Tonga 2.80 | Australia 1.34, Samoa 3.10 | Over 110 additional markets on each men’s semi-final | |
NZ 1.45, draw 26.00, Tonga 2.75 | Australia 1.40, draw 21.00, Samoa 3.05 | Win/draw/win markets listed; check the match page for further markets | |
NZ 1.45, draw 26.00, Tonga 2.75 | Australia 1.40, draw 21.00, Samoa 3.05 | Win/draw/win markets listed, with matches tagged live for in-play betting |
DudeSpin lists two-way prices with no draw option, so its figures aren’t directly comparable with the other two. Always confirm current odds and market availability before depositing.
Tips for Betting the Semi-Finals
- Wait for team news. Judiciary outcomes and late changes can shift a line. Kalyn Ponga’s return from a broken arm is also still a question, although he has been named in the extended squad.
- Don’t over-read the blowouts. The 78–0 and 66–6 results say more about the opposition than about the semi-finals.
- Respect the kickers. The Pacific derby came down to a late try, so goal-kicking accuracy can decide a tight game.
- Keep multis small. Every extra leg makes it harder to find genuine value.
- Set a budget first. There is still a final to come, so there is no need to chase.
How to Watch
Every match is free-to-air on Channel 7 and 7plus. The men’s semi-finals both kick off at 8:05pm AEDT. The Jillaroos’ semi-final on Sunday starts at 5:45pm AEDT.
Final Thoughts
The semi-finals look genuinely competitive, with Australia the standard-bearers and three Pacific-flavoured sides all believing they can win it. The winners meet in a men’s and women’s finals double-header at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday 15 November.